Here are some resources relevant to a project on confidence and its role in decision and learning that I have been undertaking for the last few years:
Published papers belonging to this project include
- A non-technical introduction and philosophical defense: Confidence in Beliefs and Rational Decision Making.
- Technical decision-theory papers: Confidence and Decision and Incomplete Preferences and Confidence.
- Normatively, the strongest argument against the confidence approach (and any non-Bayesian approach) comes in the form of a set of dynamic arguments. I argue that they are based on a (simple) mistake and debunk them here: Dynamic consistency and ambiguity: A reappraisal.
- A paper on uncertainty reporting and evidence: Confidence in belief, weight of evidence and uncertainty reporting.
- Papers on applications to climate decision and uncertainty reporting (with R. Bradley and C. Helgeson): Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision and Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment.
- Extensions to confidence in preferences (other papers focus on confidence in beliefs): Confidence in Preferences.
For work in progress, see here.
This page contains brief introductions to some of this research.
Slides and talks
Slides presenting some of this research can be found here. The following is a presentation of the projects prepared for a general audience:
A French National Research Agency-funded project
Some details on the DUSUCA project (Decision-Making & Belief Change Under Severe Uncertainty: A Confidence-Based Approach) are available here.
A Confidence Elicitation & Presentation tool
The beta version of a web tool for eliciting or reporting and presenting confidence in beliefs is available here.